On August 5, 2024, Bangladesh experienced a pivotal moment in its political history. After 16 years of authoritarian rule, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled the country following a student-led revolution[1]. Her departure marked the end of a regime that had systematically suppressed dissent, violated human rights, and fostered a climate of fear and intimidation. While Hasina’s rule was sustained by internal actors—ranging from security forces to business elites and cultural institutions—the involvement of major global powers such as the United States, India, China, and Russia also played a significant role in prolonging her time in office.
Sheikh Hasina’s rise to power in January 2009 came at a time when the world was deeply embroiled in the “Global War on Terror.”[2] The geopolitical context of this war significantly shaped the trajectory of her governance, as Hasina adeptly aligned her policies with the counterterrorism strategies of the United States. In doing so, she positioned herself as a reliable partner in combating Islamist terrorism, which helped secure U.S. backing despite mounting allegations of human rights abuses and democratic backsliding.
U.S. Support and the War on Terror
For much of her rule, Sheikh Hasina enjoyed close ties with the United States, which offered diplomatic support even in the face of widespread electoral fraud during the 2014 and 2018 elections.[3] Both elections were marred by reports of irregularities, voter suppression, and the marginalization of opposition groups. Nevertheless, successive U.S. administrations—whether Democratic or Republican—chose to overlook these democratic deficits. The primary concern for the U.S. was the stability of a regime that aligned with its security interests[4], particularly regarding the containment of Islamist extremism in South Asia.
Hasina’s government frequently reported crackdowns on alleged Islamist extremists, often making headlines for thwarting supposed terrorist plots. Her government took a zero-tolerance policy towards religious militancy. Since the deadly terrorist attack on Holey Artisan Bakery in 2016, which left more than 20 dead, security forces carried out over 50 kinetic operations, killing over 100 alleged militants[5]. However, many critics[6] argue that these threats were exaggerated or even fabricated, designed to bolster Hasina’s image as a strong leader committed to counterterrorism. This narrative of stability and control resonated with U.S. policymakers, who viewed Bangladesh as a critical ally in the fight against terrorism. While this strategy helped Hasina maintain power, it also fueled Islamophobia within Bangladesh, where Muslims constitute the overwhelming majority of the population. Radical secular elites, empowered by the state’s anti-extremism stance, capitalized on the narrative to marginalize devout Muslims and their religious practices. Reports emerged[7] of Muslim students being harassed for organizing Islamic events at Dhaka University, and female students were criticized for wearing the niqab, a traditional Islamic covering. Even faculty members with Islamic educational backgrounds faced discrimination in academic settings.
Despite this long-standing alliance, the U.S. began to distance itself from Hasina’s regime in the early 2020s, particularly following Joe Biden’s election as president. In 2021, Bangladesh was notably excluded from Biden’s Democracy Summit[8], a symbolic gesture that signaled Washington’s growing discomfort with the country’s democratic deficiencies. This was followed by sanctions on Bangladesh’s elite paramilitary force, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB)[9], which had been implicated in extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and torture. The U.S. also introduced a visa policy[10] aimed at curbing human rights abuses, particularly in the context of the 2024 elections. However, the visa policy was never fully implemented, and U.S. engagement with the Hasina government continued despite rising domestic repression. This demonstrated the U.S.’s broader strategic interest in maintaining influence in the region, even at the cost of turning a blind eye to human rights abuses.
India’s Support for Hasina
India has historically been one of the most critical supporters of the Awami League government, with deep-rooted ties dating back to Bangladesh’s War of Independence in 1971. The Awami League, under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, father of Prime Minister Hasina, was the political party that spearheaded the struggle for independence during the Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971. Rahman played a decisive role as the president of the Awami League leading the war of independence. During that period, India played a crucial role in supporting the Awami League-led government-in-exile, offering military and diplomatic backing. These historical connections continued to shape India’s approach to Bangladesh during Hasina’s tenure.
India’s strategic interests in Bangladesh have long revolved around security and regional stability. One of the key pillars of the Hasina-India alliance was her government’s cooperation in addressing India’s security concerns, particularly in its insurgency-prone northeastern states[11]. These regions, which share long borders with Bangladesh, had historically been a haven for insurgent groups seeking refuge from Indian authorities. Hasina’s government cracked down on these groups, deporting many insurgents back to India and ensuring that its territory could not be used as a base for anti-Indian activities.
This cooperation earned India’s unwavering support for Hasina, even as international criticism of her regime grew. In the lead-up to the controversial 2014 elections, India’s then-Foreign Secretary Sujata Singh[12] personally intervened to persuade Bangladesh’s Jatiya Party to participate, lending the election an air of legitimacy despite widespread accusations of electoral manipulation. This episode highlighted India’s willingness to interfere in Bangladesh’s internal politics to ensure the continuation of a friendly government in Dhaka.
Even as pressure mounted from international human rights organizations and Western governments, India remained steadfast in its support for Hasina, lobbying the United States to soften its criticisms of Bangladesh’s[13] democratic shortcomings. India’s primary concern was maintaining its influence in Bangladesh, which it viewed as a vital partner in maintaining regional stability and security. Hasina’s willingness to align with India’s strategic objectives, particularly in the context of counter-insurgency operations, was seen as too valuable to jeopardize over concerns about human rights or democratic governance.
China and Russia: Economic Leverage and Geopolitical Support
While India and the United States were key political allies for Bangladesh, China and Russia played vital roles in sustaining Hasina’s regime through economic investments and geopolitical backing. China’s economic ties with Bangladesh were particularly crucial, with Beijing pledging approximately $60 billion in trade[14], investment, and loans to Bangladesh. These investments focused on infrastructure and energy projects, including the construction of bridges, power plants, and special economic zones. Such projects not only helped boost Bangladesh’s economy but also bolstered Hasina’s populist image as a leader committed to development.
China’s influence in Bangladesh extended beyond economics, as Beijing sought to expand its geopolitical footprint in South Asia. When the United States attempted to bring Bangladesh into its Indo-Pacific strategy—primarily aimed at countering China’s rise—Beijing swiftly reacted. In May 2021, the Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh issued a public warning against Dhaka[15] joining the Quad, an informal strategic alliance between the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia. Bangladesh heeded this warning, refraining from joining the Quad and maintaining a neutral stance in the U.S.-China rivalry. China’s influence, coupled with its economic leverage, provided Hasina’s government with a degree of protection from international pressure, allowing her to suppress opposition without fear of reprisal from global powers.
Russia, too, played a role in supporting the Hasina government, particularly in the context of diplomatic backing and military cooperation. Moscow’s investments in Bangladesh’s energy sector, including the construction of a nuclear power plant[16], further solidified its ties with the regime. The $14 billion project, one of the more controversial and expensive power initiatives under the Hasina regime, underscores Russia’s significant economic interests in Bangladesh. Moreover, Russia’s diplomatic support, especially at the United Nations, provided Hasina with additional cover as her government[17] faced criticism over human rights abuses and democratic backsliding.
The Fall of the Hasina Regime
Despite the backing of these superpowers, Sheikh Hasina’s regime ultimately fell, not because of external pressure but due to a massive domestic uprising led by students. Years of authoritarianism, repression, and economic mismanagement had created a groundswell of discontent, particularly among Bangladesh’s youth, who had grown weary of the regime’s heavy-handed tactics. The student-led revolution, which began as a job quota reformation movement[18], quickly escalated into a nationwide movement demanding democratic reforms and an end to authoritarian rule.
As the protests grew, it became clear that the Hasina government could no longer rely on its internal and external allies to maintain its grip on power. Hasina’s departure was swift; as political and social turmoil escalated, she resigned as Prime Minister and fled to India. This left behind a power vacuum that was filled by an interim government led by Dr. Mohammad Yunus, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and a internationally respected figure.
Dr. Mohammad Yunus and the Interim Government
Amid this geopolitical reality, Dr. Yunus’s rise as the head of the interim government was welcomed by the international community. His close ties to the United States, built during his years of advocacy for social enterprise and poverty alleviation, made him a trusted figure in Western capitals. During his visit to the United States to attend the United Nations General Assembly, Dr. Yunus also participated in a seminar organized by the Clinton Foundation[19], where he introduced the revolutionary leaders who had toppled Hasina’s regime. This event underscored Yunus’s role as a bridge between Bangladesh and the international community.
The United States, while engaging with the interim government, faces significant challenges in Bangladesh. Anti-Indian sentiment[20], fueled by India’s past interference in Bangladesh’s domestic politics, remains strong among the Bangladeshi populace. As a member of the Quad, the U.S. risks being associated with India, which could undermine its efforts to build trust with the new government. Moreover, many Bangladeshis are skeptical of U.S. intentions, particularly after Washington’s failure to fully implement its visa policy[21] aimed at curbing human rights abuses during the Hasina era.
China, on the other hand, remains well-positioned to continue its engagement with Bangladesh. Despite its support for the Awami League regime, anti-China sentiment has not taken root in Bangladeshi society. As the country faces a deepening economic crisis, the interim government will likely seek Chinese assistance to stabilize the economy. Beijing’s willingness to provide economic support, coupled with its non-interventionist approach to Bangladesh’s internal politics, may give China an advantage in shaping the country’s post-Hasina future.
In summary, the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian regime in 2024 underscored the powerful role of domestic resistance, despite years of support from global powers like the U.S., India, China, and Russia, each driven by their strategic interests. While these external actors played a crucial role in sustaining her government, it was ultimately the people of Bangladesh, led by a student revolution, who ended her reign. As Dr. Mohammad Yunus leads the interim government, global powers are once again positioning themselves for influence. Bangladesh’s future will depend on its ability to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape while addressing internal demands for justice, democracy, and economic stability.
Reference
[1] Shafi Md Mostofa (2024) Bangladesh faces a hard road to overcome Hasina’s legacies, East Asia Forum, Australian National University, Australia.
[2] Patrycja Sasnal (2021) The War on Terror’s Lasting Scars on Human Rights, Council of Councils, USA.
[3] Shafi Md Mostofa (2020) Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism in Bangladesh, Journal of Politics and Religion, Cambridge University Press.
[4] US Department of State (2023) U.S. Security Cooperation with Bangladesh, USA.
[5] Shafi Md Mostofa (2021) Understanding Islamist Militancy in Bangladesh, SAGE, USA.
[6] Shafi Md Mostofa (2021) Islamist Militancy in Bangladesh, Springer, Cham.
[7] The Dhaka Post (2024) ঢাবিতে অনুমতি ছাড়া কোরআন তেলাওয়াতের আসর করায় চেয়ারম্যানকে শোকজ, Dhaka.
[8] The Daily Star (2023) Bangladesh left out of US democracy summit again, Dhaka.
[9] BD News (2021) US sanctions RAB, seven officials for ‘human rights abuse’, bdnews24.com, Dhaka.
[10] Shafi Md Mostofa (2024) US’s Confusing Role in Protecting Democracy in Bangladesh, RevDem, Hungary.
[11] SATP (2016) India: Terrorist, insurgent and extremist groups, India.
[12] Business Standard (2013) Sujatha Singh wraps up two-day visit to Bangladesh, India.
[13] Gerry Shih, Ellen Nakashima and John Hudson (2024) India pressed U.S. to go easy on Bangladeshi leader before her ouster, The Washington Post, USA.
[14] Shafi Md Mostofa (2023) Big Powers Battle for Influence in Bangladesh, The Diplomat, USA.
[15] Shafi Md Mostofa (2023) China in South Asia: Bangladesh is Tilting towards China, Stimson Centre, USA.
[16] Shamsuddoza Saje (2017) All you need to know about Rooppur Nuclear Power Programme, The Daily Star, Dhaka.
[17] Shafi Md Mostofa (2023) Big Powers Battle for Influence in Bangladesh, The Diplomat, USA.
[18] Shafi Md Mostofa (2024) Bangladesh faces a hard road to overcome Hasina’s legacies, East Asia Forum, Australian National University, Australia.
[19] The Indian Express (2024) Yunus reveals the ‘brain’ behind Bangladesh’s protests that led to Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, India.
[20] Shafi Md Mostofa (2022) Another Anti-India Wave Sweeps Bangladesh, The Diplomat, USA.
[21] Ali Riaz, (2023) What the new US visa policy for Bangladesh means, Atlantic Council, USA.
