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Europe Security & Conflict

Post-Soviet no more – the transformative impact of war on Russia’s neighbors

This is a shortened, significantly revised article based on the authors’ chapter “Shifting balances – the war and Russia’s neighbours,” published in the report “Russia’s War Against Ukraine and the West: The First Year”, edited by Maria Engqvist and Emil Wannheden, Stockholm: Swedish Defence Research Agency, June 2023, FOI-R—5479—SE.  Introduction Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine […]

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Asia Pacific Europe Security & Conflict

A World Historical Perspective on the War in Ukraine and the China-Taiwan Standoff

As the world faces a protracted war in Ukraine with no clear end in sight and a tense standoff in the Taiwan Strait with potential for catastrophic escalation, the time is ripe for a world historical perspective on these conflicts, which may provide help in formulating effective policy responses. It is important to start by […]

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Economics Policy & Politics Security & Conflict

Insurance Instead of Deterrence: A Pivot in Cybersecurity Strategy

Deterrence is tired. It has been put to work for more than seventy years in the nuclear warfare domain, and it has performed admirably there. After all, the world is still intact. The problem is not that deterrence does not do its original job well. Rather, it is that the use of deterrence as a […]

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Asia Pacific North America Policy & Politics Security & Conflict

Will Biden’s New Truman Doctrine Offset the Sino-Russian Pact?

During his maiden trip to Asia as president in late May 2022, Joe Biden implied that the United States would take stronger military action to defend Taiwan against China than his administration has taken to support Ukraine to fight against Russia.[1] While meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio in Tokyo, Biden’s robust declaration evidently […]

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Book Reviews Economics Energy & Environment North America Policy & Politics

Review: Robert Vitalis’ Oilcraft: The Myths of Scarcity and Security that Haunt U.S. Energy Policy

Of all the myths and fabrications that exist in political discourse, few are more stubbornly persistent than the scarcity of resources and the policies supposedly needed to control them. Today, that discourse has converged around one definitive commodity: oil. The omnipresence of oil in the modern economy is eclipsed only by the persistent belief in […]

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Asia Pacific North America Policy & Politics Security & Conflict

How to Weaken the China-Russia Axis: Historical Lessons from Great-Power Competition

Key Judgments Growing ties between Moscow and Beijing threaten US national security. American strategic planners should consider undermining these ties as a strategic imperative. This goal remains achievable if pursued with vigor because Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine has exposed differences in worldviews between Moscow and Beijing. While these differences are not necessarily chasmic, […]

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Economics Policy & Politics Security & Conflict

Beyond MIRVs and SCUDs, the Newest Global Weapon Is ESG

Introduction In the weapons world––loaded with the likes of Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), and SCUDs––an emerging global weapon is Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG).         The current ESG target is Russia, and the payload is an economic siege designed to isolate and strangle the Russian economy. Driving that siege are global […]

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Asia Pacific North America Security & Conflict

Clash of the Chips: A Comparison of US-China Semiconductor Production Capacities

Introduction The 2021 National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence identified artificial intelligence (AI) as an inspiring technology, one that will be the most powerful tool for future generations towards benefiting humanity.[1] It also recognized that AI-enhanced capabilities will serve as the tools of first resort in a new era of conflict and cooperation. Semiconductors, the […]

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Asia Pacific Europe Policy & Politics Security & Conflict

Europe’s Borderlands and China’s Challenge: Why War in Ukraine Matters

How are we to understand Russia’s aggression against Ukraine,[1] and how are we to respond? Invoking fabricated grievances,[2],[3] Russia on February 24, 2022 launched an all-out war against Ukraine. Friends and allies have shown solidarity, as Europe, the United States, and others impose sanctions against the aggressor, and an array of countries pledge lethal defensive […]

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Asia Pacific Governance & Law Middle East Policy & Politics Security & Conflict

Towards an ASEAN Model for Cooperation in Central Asia

ASEAN provides a working framework for Central Asian states to engage in comprehensive regional cooperation to neutralize internal conflicts and survive great power competition. A New Saigon After years of fighting a rural insurgency, a rushed American withdrawal leads to the collapse of a Washington-backed government and the desperate, mass evacuation of former American allies. […]