This is a shortened, significantly revised article based on the authors’ chapter “Shifting balances – the war and Russia’s neighbours,” published in the report “Russia’s War Against Ukraine and the West: The First Year”, edited by Maria Engqvist and Emil Wannheden, Stockholm: Swedish Defence Research Agency, June 2023, FOI-R—5479—SE. Introduction Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine […]
As the world faces a protracted war in Ukraine with no clear end in sight and a tense standoff in the Taiwan Strait with potential for catastrophic escalation, the time is ripe for a world historical perspective on these conflicts, which may provide help in formulating effective policy responses. It is important to start by […]
During his maiden trip to Asia as president in late May 2022, Joe Biden implied that the United States would take stronger military action to defend Taiwan against China than his administration has taken to support Ukraine to fight against Russia.[1] While meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio in Tokyo, Biden’s robust declaration evidently […]
Of all the myths and fabrications that exist in political discourse, few are more stubbornly persistent than the scarcity of resources and the policies supposedly needed to control them. Today, that discourse has converged around one definitive commodity: oil. The omnipresence of oil in the modern economy is eclipsed only by the persistent belief in […]
Key Judgments Growing ties between Moscow and Beijing threaten US national security. American strategic planners should consider undermining these ties as a strategic imperative. This goal remains achievable if pursued with vigor because Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine has exposed differences in worldviews between Moscow and Beijing. While these differences are not necessarily chasmic, […]
Introduction In the weapons world––loaded with the likes of Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), and SCUDs––an emerging global weapon is Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG). The current ESG target is Russia, and the payload is an economic siege designed to isolate and strangle the Russian economy. Driving that siege are global […]
Introduction The 2021 National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence identified artificial intelligence (AI) as an inspiring technology, one that will be the most powerful tool for future generations towards benefiting humanity.[1] It also recognized that AI-enhanced capabilities will serve as the tools of first resort in a new era of conflict and cooperation. Semiconductors, the […]
How are we to understand Russia’s aggression against Ukraine,[1] and how are we to respond? Invoking fabricated grievances,[2],[3] Russia on February 24, 2022 launched an all-out war against Ukraine. Friends and allies have shown solidarity, as Europe, the United States, and others impose sanctions against the aggressor, and an array of countries pledge lethal defensive […]
ASEAN provides a working framework for Central Asian states to engage in comprehensive regional cooperation to neutralize internal conflicts and survive great power competition. A New Saigon After years of fighting a rural insurgency, a rushed American withdrawal leads to the collapse of a Washington-backed government and the desperate, mass evacuation of former American allies. […]